US Manufacturing PMI Hit New Low, Copper Prices Rose Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,454.5/mt, initially dipped to $9,453/mt, then rose steadily, fluctuated rangebound mid-session, peaked at $9,562.5/mt, and finally dropped back slightly to close at $9,400/mt, up 0.59%. Trading volume reached 24,000 lots, and open interest was 270,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2410 contract opened at 75,500 yuan/mt, fluctuated rangebound initially, dipped to 75,490 yuan/mt mid-session, then rose to 75,810 yuan/mt, and finally dropped back to close at 75,640 yuan/mt, up 0.3%. Trading volume reached 21,000 lots, and open interest was 114,000 lots. Macro side, the preliminary US September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI recorded 47, lower than the expected 48.5, marking a 15-month low and contracting for the third consecutive month. The preliminary US September S&P Global Services PMI recorded 55.4, slightly above expectations but indicating slower growth. Following the data release, the US dollar index declined. Additionally, US Fed officials suggested potential future rate cuts, with several Fed policymakers scheduled to speak and economic data releases this week, potentially providing more market guidance. Fundamentals, supply side, spot copper cathode supply remained tight as previously arrived shipments struggled to enter the domestic trade market quickly. Demand side, pre-National Day restocking accelerated social inventory destocking. According to SMM data, as of Monday, September 23, SMM copper inventory in major regions nationwide fell sharply by 227,000 mt to 166,000 mt compared to last Thursday, continuing destocking with an accelerating speed. However, total inventory was still 81,000 mt higher compared to 85,000 mt in the same period last year, though the gap has significantly narrowed. Supported by this, copper prices are expected to fluctuate upward.